I recently read one of the latest releases from the Lifeboat
Foundation titled, Prospects for Human
Survival by Willard Wells. As a member of the Lifeboat Foundation Advisory
Board, I was asked to review the book. While I’m not one for doom and gloom, alas
I always hold out hope for humanity, I found Prospects to be an interesting read.
This is a very casually and yet carefully written treatise based on a formula
that the author, Willard Wells, has been working on for some time. A Ph. D. in
Physics from Caltech with a minor in math makes Wells quite qualified in his research
into an equation that can predict the half-life the human species. For those of
you who enjoy math, the time spent describing the logic behind his equation is
very thorough. In addition, the appendices are filled with proofs and other
research to back up his thesis, which is essentially that the our technological civilization has a
half-life of only 20 – 50 years, unless we implement appropriate interventions.
The major reason Wells believes this to be a possibility is
the invention of AI, which he claims has a destruction potential so great that
this alone may spell our doom. He assumes in this book that AI will basically
ruin us unless we begin to create a kind AI, one that’s programmed to love and
serve humanity. Interestingly, he calls this the Nanny AI. I’ve seen this argument
before, that the only way to stop a bad AI is a good AI. However, while I
understand that AI has the power to destroy us, I also don’t think truly
independent thinking machines are as much of a danger as we think. First, the
technology to reproduce Artificial Consciousness or Sentience hasn’t even been
invented yet. And it’s not even considered possible by most computer
scientists. To base our future survival rate on something that may remain in
the realm of science fiction is unrealistic. At a minimum, the value it’s given
in Wells’ equation is at best exaggerated.
However this book isn’t only about the threat of AI. Wells
does a great job covering many other scenarios, from the gray goo nanobot
takeover to nuclear war/winter. He includes global warming and biological
warfare as well. He’s created a fairly complete list and has taken the time to
give some conspiracy theories some thought. While many of the hazards he lists
may also seem like science fiction, the exercise of thinking about them is
important. At a minimum, a science fiction writer could use this book to get
some great story lines, which is something Wells encourages!
And to me, that’s one of the most interesting parts of this
book, the author’s encouragement that we continue to use storytelling as a way
to both awaken us to the dangers technology brings to our race, as well as the
solutions. Wells rightly suggests that storytelling has a purpose in our
learning as a species and allows us to delve deeper into scenarios in a way
that mere mathematical formulas and data crunching can’t do for us. When we
tell a story, we look at the danger from the perspective of many characters,
and the plotline can reveal not only solutions, but touchpoints or places where
decisions must be made, or else our chance to save ourselves will pass us by.
To me, Wells is brilliant to encourage such exploration in storytelling, but
then again, I’m a science fiction writer for that reason—I want to look at
technology from all angles and see where might be headed.
Lastly, Wells spends a decent amount of time discussing Wall
Street and their technology, specifically stock traders and their quants, Wall
Street’s name for their computer finance geeks. Rarely do I see this aspect of
our technology mentioned in a list of dangers to humanity, but it is one of the
most nefarious aspects of our society right now. Quants are designing AI that
will, “know as much as possible about human nature so they can exploit human
biases in their evaluation of stocks.” Wells points out that this is a powerful
AI already and unfortunately resides in the realm of Wall Street, a place where
lawmakers are indifferent to risks or enacting legislation. Take the 2008
economic meltdown, caused by our “too big to fail” banks. It was a disaster and
those responsible were barely held accountable. Instead they were rewarded with
a HUGE bailout. Quants have already created a computerized money making scheme—high
frequency trading (HFT), which allows traders to exchange millions of shares on
a time scale of milliseconds that no normal investor can possibly track. As
Wells puts it, “It is a parasitic activity that destabilizes the system without
performing any useful service to anyone. By acting on price fluctuations milliseconds
before anyone else, they essentially levy a tax on everyone else.”
Why include this in our list of hazards for the human race?
One, the HFT technology can completely destroy our economy which can lead to
widespread disease, hunger and social meltdown. Second, our Congress doesn’t
care. Spread Networks, a telecom provider recently built a high-speed
fiber-optic cable between Chicago and New York, shaving 3 milliseconds off the
communication time between the two cities. Who wanted this? High-frequency
traders, and they were willing to pay $300M to create it, most likely knowing
that Congress has no plans to shut down or legislate HFT at all. Over time, as
quants develop more and more sophisticated software, without any oversight, one
can only imagine where it will lead. Combined with the accumulation of immense
wealth in the hands of a few, Wells is right to point this vulnerability out,
because of all the threats humanity faces, economic meltdown at the hands of an
AI designed to exploit us in order to make money is probably the most likely
disaster that will strike us. In fact, it's almost guaranteed unless some sort of regulation on the part of our government takes place.
Overall Willard Wells has written a very readable book for
those who think about the end times and want suggestions on how to prepare. His
writing style is both casual and chatty, as well as mathematically rigorous. If
you’re wondering what your best next steps are in the face of potential
technological devastation, then I think you’ll find Prospects for Human Survival a worthwhile read.
The book can be purchased at
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